Melbourne's Spring Market

Strong demand, stable prices? Here's what the conflicting signals really mean and how to take advantage. 

The stage is set for a powerful Spring selling season in Australia, and Melbourne is at a unique inflection point. A series of national tailwinds are converging, creating an environment primed for growth. For savvy buyers, this presents a strategic opportunity. 

The Big Picture: Four Forces Driving the Market 

Instead of a slow winter, the market is being propelled forward by four key drivers: 

• RBA Rate Cuts: Three cuts in 2025 have boosted borrowing power and unleashed buyer confidence. 

• Critically Low Supply: With advertised properties up to 29% below the long-term average, inventory is at a 15-year low. This supply-demand crunch puts a firm floor under prices. 

• Population Growth: Victoria is again the nation's leader in population growth, creating a constant stream of housing demand that supply can't match. 

• Government Incentives: An expanded Home Guarantee Scheme is set to inject a fresh wave of first-home buyers into the market from October 1st. 

These factors have created a national market that is fundamentally predisposed to price growth. 

Melbourne's Demand is Heating Up 

While headline price figures have been modest, leading indicators show a robust revival in Melbourne's buyer demand. 

Auction clearance rates are a real-time barometer of market strength—have consistently held above 70%, a clear signal of a seller's market. This is backed by a huge jump in market sentiment, with Victoria recording the sharpest confidence boost of any state in the June quarter. 

We're not only seeing more buyers, but a broader range of them. First-home buyers are returning in force, but the key trend is the arrival of sophisticated interstate investors. Having taken profits from booming markets like Brisbane and Perth, they are now redeploying capital into Melbourne, seeking value and upside potential. For these investors, LongView's on-the-ground expertise is critical to identifying opportunities that outsiders would miss. 

The Melbourne Paradox: Why Aren't Prices Soaring Yet? 

If demand is so strong, why has Melbourne's median price growth been so mild? The answer lies beneath the surface and reveals the current opportunity. 

1. A Two-Tier Market is Emerging: The city-wide median is hiding the real story. While nearly 80% of suburbs saw values dip last quarter, A-grade, investment-quality properties in desirable locations are already seeing strong competition and growth. The recovery isn't uniform; it's being led by the best assets. This is precisely the segment of the market where LongView's advisory and buying services focus, ensuring our clients acquire properties poised for outperformance. 
2. A Healthy Return of Sellers: Unlike other capitals, Melbourne saw a healthy 11.5% surge in new listings in August. This fresh supply is meeting the wave of new buyers, creating a more balanced market and preventing the runaway price escalation seen elsewhere. This balance won't last forever. 

Your Strategic Advantage with LongView 

This Spring presents a rare window to buy after the market has clearly bottomed but before the full momentum of the next cycle takes hold. Competition for premium properties is already fierce and will only intensify as interest rates fall further and the story of Melbourne's recovery becomes common knowledge. 

Navigating this two-tier market requires expert analysis, deep local knowledge, and privileged access to the best opportunities—both on and off-market. 

Don't wait for the boom to become obvious. Whether you're an investor seeking value or a homebuyer looking for your perfect property, now is the time to act. 

Contact us today to discuss how LongView's can assist you.