Brisbane Property Market Update: September 2026

Brisbane dwelling values fell 1.0% in August, following a 0.6% fall in July, the second straight monthly decline. Values now sit 2.7% below the May 2026 peak, and annual growth has moderated sharply to 10.8%, down from 14.8% just a month earlier. It's a market that has clearly lost momentum. It is not, on the numbers, a market in a deep correction.

That distinction matters. Brisbane's downturn is part of the same national slowdown affecting every capital, national dwelling values fell 0.9% in August, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, and now sit 3.6% below the March peak, with 93% of capital city suburbs recording a decline over winter, up from 46% in autumn. But within that national picture, Brisbane's fall has been comparatively shallow: down 2.7% over the quarter, against Sydney's 4.7%, Melbourne's 3.9% and Perth's 3.2%.

The reason is the run that preceded it. Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide each recorded exceptional growth over the past five years, and that gives them a real buffer heading into a slower patch.

Vendors are Still Listing

Here's where Brisbane's story genuinely differs from other capital cities right now. In markets further into their downturn, would-be vendors have started pulling back, holding listings off-market rather than selling into softer conditions, a pullback that naturally puts a floor under further falls. Brisbane isn't there yet. SQM Research recorded an 18% jump in Brisbane listings between June and July, the largest increase of any capital city, and total listings for the three months to July were running 39.5% higher than a year earlier. Days on market have stretched to 28, from 19 a year ago, and the median vendor discount has widened to 3.7%, from 2.9% a year earlier.

The Rental Market

Brisbane's rental market remains genuinely tight. Vacancy sits at around 0.9%, essentially unchanged on a year ago, and annual rent growth reached 6.6% ahead of the combined capitals average of 5.9% with houses (+6.7%) and units (+6.2%) both contributing. Brisbane's gross rental yield sits at 3.4%, a little below the combined capitals average of 3.6% and, notably, below Melbourne's current 4.0% a reminder of how far Brisbane values have run ahead of rents over the past few years, even with rents still climbing strongly in absolute terms.

Rates and inflation

Inflation remains the persistent problem for the RBA. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% in July, but the trimmed mean the RBA's preferred measure is stuck at 3.6%, still well above the 2–3% target band. The cash rate has already been lifted three times this year to 4.35%, and most economists now expect at least one more increase before year end, with some tipping two. NAB expects a move at the 29 September meeting; ANZ and CBA expect November, which would take the cash rate to 4.60%.

What's Holding Buyers Back

Buyer and investor confidence is genuinely low. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index sits at 88.9, well below the 100 mark where optimists and pessimists balance, and 59% of households expect mortgage rates to rise further.

Layered on top is political uncertainty. Will the Budget's negative gearing and capital gains changes survive in their current form? What does the rise of One Nation, now polling around a quarter of the primary vote with a 130,000 net migration target, mean for student and migration numbers, and therefore for rental demand? Unlike Victoria, which goes to the polls on 28 November, Queensland isn't due for a state election until 2028 so unlike our Victorian owners, there's no nearby state-level circuit breaker where some of this uncertainty gets resolved one way or the other. Add general economic uncertainty and it's easy to see why buyers are sitting on their hands.

A few things worth remembering

Prices reflect expectations more than the present. Markets price in the future values fall when buyers expect things to get worse, not because they're worse today. If sentiment turns, or even if the current uncertainties simply level out, conditions would be expected to normalise.

The equity cushion is enormous. Australian households own residential land and dwellings worth about $13 trillion against $3.3 trillion in housing debt roughly $9.7 trillion of equity, most of it in the family home and in investment properties held by ordinary Australians. Whatever your politics or your view on house prices, it's untenable for a government of any persuasion to oversee sustained falls in the value of the biggest asset most voters own. Political pressure to respond will build quickly, and governments have plenty of levers.

Some correction is natural and Brisbane is a textbook case of it. Brisbane values are up roughly 71% over five years, alongside similar exceptional runs in Perth and Adelaide. After growth like that, a pause is healthy, and Brisbane remains 10.8% higher than a year ago even after the recent falls.