Brisbane Gives Back Some of Its Gains After Nearly Doubling in a Decade, While Rents Keep Rising

In the space of a quarter Brisbane has gone from the shallowest downturn on the east coast to the sharpest. It is worth keeping the size of that fall in proportion though. Brisbane is giving back a slice of a very large gain, and it is doing it from a much higher base than Melbourne or Sydney.

How far, how fast

Brisbane's dwelling values fell 2% in October, the largest monthly fall of any capital, and 6% over the three months to the end of October. The pace has picked up as the quarter has gone on. Values are now 8% below the May 2026 peak, and the median dwelling value is just over $1 million.

The annual figure tells you how recent the turn is. Over the twelve months to October, Brisbane values are still fractionally ahead. As recently as August, annual growth was running at close to 11%. Over five years values are up 46%, and over ten years they have nearly doubled, up 98%. That is the base the current falls are coming off.

Brisbane is falling fastest, but from a much higher base

Change in dwelling values to 31 October 2026. Peaks: Melbourne March 2022, Brisbane May 2026. Source: Cotality Home Value Index, November 2026.

The decline is broad. Houses and units both fell around 6% over the quarter, so this is not a premium end correction.

The contrast with Melbourne is instructive. Melbourne fell close to 3% over the same quarter and its monthly declines are getting smaller. But Melbourne prices have risen just 22% over ten years.

Vendors are still listing, buyers are not buying

Brisbane vendors were still coming to market through winter. Buyers did not follow. Sales in Brisbane over the past three months are 29% below a year ago, the sharpest fall of any capital alongside Sydney.

Brisbane buyers have more choice than they have had in years. SQM Research counted close to 23,500 homes listed for sale across Brisbane in October, 44% more than a year ago. New listings were slightly lower than last October, so as in the other major capitals the stock is building because it is not selling. The number of properties that have sat on the market for more than six months is up more than 50% on a year ago. Brisbane's 44% jump in total listings is the largest of the major capitals.

We are noticing our own clients pulling back too. The number of clients discussing selling their properties is well down on six months ago, which fits the picture of a market where fewer owners are choosing to test the market.

There is not one single factor driving values lower. Higher interest rates have cut what buyers can borrow and sentiment is low. The May Budget changed the situation for many investors as well. We suspect we are also seeing investors holding onto existing properties to protect their grandfathered negative gearing: an investment property owned before Budget night keeps the current rules, while a replacement bought now does not. That is a strong reason to hold rather than sell and buy again, and it may be one reason new listings are down even as total stock climbs.

The rental market: still the tightest of the big capitals

Brisbane rents rose around 6.5% over the past year, well ahead of Melbourne (around 4.5%) and Sydney (around 4%). Growth is cooling everywhere though. National rents rose less than 1% over the past three months, the smallest quarterly rise since January 2025. Brisbane's vacancy rate is 0.9%, unchanged from August and from a year ago, and down from 1.4% five years ago. By any historical measure that is extremely tight.

As always however, averages can be misleading and across our own Brisbane portfolio, rents at the cheaper end have risen fastest by a decent margin. Properties renting for under $450 a week rose 9.3% over the year and those between $450 and $549 rose 7.6%, both well ahead of the city-wide average of around 6.5%. Rental growth growth then eases steadily as rents rise with properties leased above $800 per week only increaes 3.3% above $800 a week. Put simply, the cheapest rentals are rising almost three times as fast as the most expensive. That is where demand is most stretched, with tenants priced out of higher rents competing for a limited pool of more affordable homes.

Cheaper rentals are rising almost three times as fast as the top end

Average annual rent growth by weekly rent, last 12 months. Source: LongView Queensland Portfolio.

 A few things worth remembering

• The market is still falling, and in Brisbane the pace is picking up rather than easing. We are not calling the bottom, and the next few months are likely to bring further declines.

• Sentiment is firmly negative and will stay that way for a while. Rates have just gone up again, holding costs are rising with them, and buyers are sitting on their hands even with far more stock to choose from.
• Most investors understand the market moves in cycles. A fall of 8% from the peak after values nearly doubled in a decade leaves anyone who has held for two years or more comfortably ahead, and many of those with grandfathered negative gearing are choosing to hold rather than sell into a soft market.
• Rental growth is slowing, but it is still firmly positive across Brisbane. Rents are up around 6.5% over the year, vacancy is under 1% and yields are rising. The income side of the investment has not turned.

If you are weighing up your next move

We know this is a tough time for many of our clients, particularly those carrying considerable debt. We also know that decisions in property are of great importance, so if you are considering selling or weighing up your options, please talk to us first so we can at least guide you through the options you have.

And as we have said before, for owners who need a medium term financial injection but do not want to sell, our HomeFlex equity release product is most certainly worth considering.